Αn Eclectic Discussion of the Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on the World Economy During the First Stage of the Spread

This paper examines the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which, according to the World Health Organization, has affected every country and has caused millions of deaths as well as huge financial losses. This paper, then, explores recent statistics documenting the disruption of the world economy. Of course, the blow at the level of business, market, employment, income, industries, companies, and so on is an issue that should be constantly investigated. The ongoing impact study proposal is based on the fact that each developing country has taken measures and enacted policies to reduce the direct impact of COVID-19. However, as research shows, each country has different records and sizes of impacts to their economies, and any government effort to reduce these effects should take into account national losses and impacts so the recovery measures are proportionate. Government measures should be adapted to the operational needs and difficulties of the country to effectively ensure resilience, security, reduction of economic losses and sustainable industrialization.


The Financial Effects
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a huge economic crisis worldwide. The economy of each country affected by the virus has been affected, regardless of the income of each country. Recent data from the UNIDO Industrial Production Index show that low-and middle-income countries have been severely affected by this pandemic (Cantore et al., 2020), as can be seen in Table 1. Table 1. Average loss in % in the index of industrial production (IIP) across countries (April 2020) Source: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020 According to recent data from the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University, there is a large asymmetry in the number of deaths that occurred by the transmission of this virus per country. Thus, an example is the case of the poorest country in the world, sub-Saharan Africa, where there is no serious influence from the pandemic, compared to the effects that existed in other countries (Cantore et al., 2020), as Figure 1 shows. ISSN 1923-4023 E-ISSN 1923 Figure 1. Spread of COVID-19 around the globe Source: https://choice.npr.org/index.html?origin=https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/30/822491838/coronav irus-world-map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-outbreak‖?t=1593590785569 According to a study by Noy et al. (2020), the immediate cost of this pandemic seems to be related to the diseases it causes in humans and their mortality. These direct costs, however, are lower compared to the indirect losses incurred. The impact of the pandemic may not be as significant in terms of human mortality, but it is serious financially. Many countries are in recession, and the death toll is not commensurate. Even the few deaths significantly affect businesses in low-income countries due to their poor socioeconomic conditions (vulnerability) and the inability of these countries to respond to economic crises (resilience). In addition, many countries have been indirectly affected by the disruption of the value chain and the decline in international demand for their goods as a result of the global recession.

Industrial Production and Exports
According to the latest statistics obtained from the UNIDO Industrial Production Index (IIP), data from 49 countries showed an economic loss of 87% of world value-added production. Comparing the data from the IIP for March 2020, when there was a strong and dangerous outbreak of COVID-19, compared to those of December 2019, it appeared that 81% of countries showed a reduction in industrial production at an average rate of 6% . This comparison also showed that there is a reduction in industrial production by an average of 20% in 93% of countries worldwide. Of course, this reduction does not mean that there have been similar effects on human health, as shown in Figure 2 below. In particular, states that had the same rate of COVID-19-infected patients did not have the same level of financial loss, which depends on the containment measures taken and implemented by each state government (Cantore et al., 2020). The decrease in industrial production showed a heterogeneous distribution in the countries; there were positive prices, but also losses that reached 50%. According to the India Industrial Production Index, there was a decrease of 65%. This reveals the drastic reduction in the country's exports due to the pandemic. Countries are generally classified according to the decrease in industrial production, so through this classification, it is possible to compare data by country, with comparative time periods of March 2019 and April 2020. A total of 50% of the countries in the world suffered from the reduction in their industrial production, which was more than 2%. The average value of the sample regarding the Industrial Production Index is between 20% to 30%. The majority of countries in the Industrial Production Index worldwide showed a decrease in industrial production of between 10-20% (Cantore et al., 2020). Generally, during the month of April 2020 (i.e., during the COVID-19 pandemic), there was a deterioration in industrial production compared to industrial production during non-pandemic measurements (i.e., March 2019). The decrease in industrial production continued to exist in 90% of the countries in the world, with an average fall in industrial production of 15% each month. The monthly decline was more pronounced in India, where it reached 55%, in Northern Macedonia, with a decrease of 35%, in Malaysia, with a decrease of 34%, in Turkey, with a decrease of 33% and in Slovenia, where the reduction reached 32%. On the other hand, industrial production increased in some countries, such as Senegal, with an increase of 9%, Canada, with an increase of 7%, and Singapore, with an increase of 4% (Cantore et al., 2020).
There was a decisive impact on the manufacturing industries due to the economic crisis as a result of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, as shown by comparative data between March 2019 and April 2020. Countries experienced a global decline in manufacturing of 55% in the pharmaceutical industry and up to 94% in the automotive industry. The pharmaceutical industry was one of the exceptions, as some pharmaceutical companies were hit harder than others. Some pharma companies fared better than others.On the other hand, every automotive industry has suffered a huge financial blow. The negative trend of the economic crisis continued after April for every industry in the world, with the pharmaceutical industry being less economically affected compared to other sectors of world industrial production (Cantore et al., 2020), as Figure 4 shows.

Trade Losses Due to the Pandemic
From the studies that were conducted on commercial trends, for March and April of 2020, results showed it does not deviate much from the trend that existed in the industrial production as well. In all, 43 of the 46 countries surveyed worldwide showed a reduced level of their commercial goods. The largest decrease in trade was observed in South Africa, India, Mexico, France, and Italy. China recovered quickly, while Israel, China, and Chile increased their trade during the pandemic. The 10 countries that showed the largest decrease in trade quantitatively are countries that are distinguished for their higher incomes. Therefore the pandemic had a negative impact on the industry and trade of developed and developing countries (Cantore et al., 2020), as shown in Figure 5. Figure 5. Change of trade in goods in % by country for the period March -April 2020Source: https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=el&prev=search&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.gr &sl=en&sp=nmt4&u=https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx%3FDataSetCode%3DMEI_TRD&usg=ALkJrhiuX8yTryxsZ CM-v7VYQ2a74CfdJg UNIDO survey, for many Asian countries, there is preliminary evidence of the effects on their businesses (Cantore et al., 2020), as shown below.

The Effects of COVID-19 on Business
The pandemic has affected all industries, and how much it has affected them depends on the restrictive measures taken by each country. Of course, these restrictive measures affected the processing companies. Key determinants for economic growth in companies are the extent of firms' productive capacities, their degree of integration in domestic and global production networks, and the type of market they serve. Thus, in some countries, companies were able to respond quickly to the demands of the -new age‖ of the pandemic and adjust their activities accordingly, limiting the overall impact of COVID-19 on their profits, cash flow, and staff (Cantore et al., 2020).
After COVID-19 was declared a pandemic period by the World Health Organization, for more than 3 months, the industrial data from businesses were limited, despite three corporate surveys conducted by national and international organizations worldwide. Each country has made an effort to analyze the impact of this crisis on business, such as ESIEC at Peking University. However, it was difficult to locate business data and thus compare the impact on companies from the pandemic for each country worldwide (Cantore et al., 2020). This is a serious research gap. However, to fill this research gap, UNIDO conducted pilot surveys for companies, specifically for manufacturing companies in Asian countries. From the first pilot survey, 1,400 valid responses were collected from seven countries. This electronic survey was conducted from mid-April 2020 until early June 2020, with the cooperation of governments, chambers of commerce, and other organizations operating in these seven countries.
Through the research results, information was gathered on the various effects that the pandemic had on each country's industry and businesses, while data were also collected on the reactions of each government and companies in each country (Cantore et al., 2020). The results are shown in Figure 6. Source: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020

The Short-Term Effects of the Pandemic
The effects of the pandemic in the Asian countries mentioned above per 100,000 inhabitants vary between countries, as shown in the following table. Thus, more than 80 cases per 100,000 inhabitants were reported from Pakistan and Afghanistan and less than five cases per 100,000 inhabitants were reported from Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The difference between the countries is also seen in the companies that reported that more than half of their employees were unemployed because they could not work during the pandemic. Thus, there was a greater negative impact on the operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan than on the operations in Thailand and Vietnam. More than half of employees in Malaysia and Mongolia reported they were unemployed at the time of the pandemic. In fact, the actual number of people infected by COVID-19 was not the only factor that pushed the unemployment in companies and enterprises. More than one-third of companies stated that at least half of their employees did not work during the pandemic  (Cantore et al., 2020). Figure 7. The current impact of COVID-19 in selected Asian countries Source: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020

Job Prospects in a Pandemic
There are different figures regarding companies' expectations for their future business profits and for the increase in employment-50% of companies in the countries surveyed answered that they expect an active reduction in their company's profits for 2020, as shown in Figure 8. Also, 20% of companies stated that they had already laid off employees . The majority of companies, in fact, expect cuts in their profits and employment, as demonstrated by companies in Mongolia and Afghanistan (Cantore et al., 2020). Figure 8. The expected impact of COVID-19 on firms' profits and employment, by countrySource: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020 The majority of workers lost their jobs or saw a reduction in income due to the crisis caused by the pandemic. Thus, unemployment increased dramatically in large economies (Jones et al., 2020), as shown in Figure 9. In the United States, 10.4% of the population is not working, according to the International Monetary Fund, which means that the decade of expansion in one of the largest economies in the world is over. Millions of workers have maintained their jobs through the support they received from the government, while tourism and hospitality are at a stand-still. Of course, each country is experiencing different conditions. (Jones et al., 2020;OECD, 2020), as shown in Figure 10. There have been signs that the economy is recovering in the global labor market. Examples are China and France, where recruitment rates have increased and downtime has declined, according to LinkedIn Corporation (2020). Figure 11. Linkedln hiring rate by country Some experts have reported that employment data are only available from before the pandemic, so they are unsure about the cause of the pandemic in the employment situation (Jones et al., 2020). According to the International Monetary Fund (2020), if the economy grows, wealth will increase, and jobs will increase and multiply. It is the count according to a percentage change of the gross domestic product or the value of the goods and services produced in a period of 3 months or in a year. According to the International Monetary Fund, the world economy will shrink by 3% for 2020. In fact, the decline in the global economy is described as the biggest recession since 1930.

The Travel Industry
The travel industry has been hit hard. Airlines have suspended flights, and many of their potential customers are canceling their business trips and vacations. In many countries, travel restrictions have been introduced in an effort to curb the virus. Thus, according to data provided by Flight Radar flight monitoring service 24/7 (Petchenik, 2020), flights worldwide were a huge success for the year 2020, as shown in Figure 13. As the pandemic spread, there were reductions in certain areas, and industry began to open up. An example is Spain, which has reopened its entry gates to tourists from all over Europe, without quarantining them. For months, Spain was under quarantine and blocked entrance to visitors from any country. Private companies also reported that there has been a huge volume of seat bookings from the UK as the country's restrictions have been lifted (Jones et al., 2020). Until the current pandemic, which reduced and zeroed in many cases the use and value of products, services (private and public), and resources included in tourism, there was the impression that it was mainly the environmental and the economic trends representing the most influential and diversifying activity Chatzitheodoridis et al., 2020).

Product Oil Prices
The demand for oil was affected by the global quarantine lock down situation. The price of crude oil was affected by competition between OPEC, the oil producer group, and Russia. During the pandemic, the price of oil fell significantly (Jones et al., 2020). Brent crude oil is an example of a product used by Europe and the rest of the world. Its price fell to $20, an unprecedented phenomenon over the past 18 years. Oil prices certainly returned, as the restriction on drivers no longer existed, so the demand for fuel grew (Jones et al., 2020).

Consumer Confidence
Retail trade also fell sharply, unprecedented for years. Buyers/consumers were locked in their homes due to quarantine, trying to stop the spread of COVID-19. Thus, they did not go to the market in order to shop. Of course, pedestrians in the market have since increased, as quarantine and home restraint measures have eased, according to Shopper Trak (Jones et al., 2020).

The Vaccine Issue
Globally, governments have spent billions of dollars to find an effective vaccine to treat patients with COVID-19. Some pharmaceutical companies are struggling to develop and test a variety of drugs to help countries return to normal health and normal living conditions, namely prior to COVID-19 (Jones et al., 2020).

Figure 16
Thus, the shares in some pharmaceutical companies have increased, raising the hopes that an effective vaccine will be approved and distributed safely. In particular, the share price of the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca reached record prices. The pharmaceutical company states that it can produce 2 billion doses of the vaccine (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52917118). On the other hand, according to official statements from the International Monetary Fund (Jones et al., 2020), no country is safe until the appropriate COVID-19 vaccine is released.

The Impact of the Pandemic on Individual Industries
Not all industries have been affected in the same way and to the same extent. Companies related to the textile, clothing, and leather industries are expected to be hit severely in terms of profits and jobs. Businesses associated with the chemical and plastics and rubber industries, on the other hand, expected their profits to be cut by less than half, as shown in Figure 17 below. The raw material industries will be hit even harder in terms of profits and employment. Furniture, recycling, and printing industries expect a significant reduction in their profits is expected, as answered by 54% of the companies that participated in the survey, while 16% of the companies in these sectors will be forced to announce drastic job cuts. This is the average answer of those who responded in the survey. Similar trends seem to exist for the machinery and transport equipment industries (Cantore et al., 2020). Figure 17. Expected impact of COVID-19 on firms' profits and employment, by industry Source: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020

The Problems of Industries
Businesses state different expectations from the pandemic challenges they face, as shown in Figure 18. The two main challenges that industries state they face are that market demand has declined as well as difficulties in paying their employees. The biggest problem for the textile and clothing industries is the payment of their employees' salaries. Many industries also seem to be facing the problem of the reduction of the demand for their products. Also, textile and clothing companies and their affiliates are concerned about their supply. Finally, there is great concern for the chemical, rubber, and plastics industries about impacts in their supply chains, which will be accompanied by a chain reaction for their partner companies or enterprises (Cantore et al., 2020). Figure 18. Top 5 problems reported by firms, across industries Source: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020

The Size of the Company in Relation to the Effects of the Pandemic on Profits and Employment
It seems that the size of the company plays an important role in the impact of the pandemic on its profits and the issue of employment of its employees. Specifically, as Figure 19 shows, the smaller companies that are expanding predict a greater reduction in their profits compared to the statements made by the larger companies. A similar phenomenon exists in the issue of employment: smaller companies acknowledge they will cut staff, while larger companies state that their staff cuts will be limited (Cantore et al., 2020). Figure 19. Expected impact of COVID-19 on firms' profits and employment, by firm size Source: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020

Comparison of Problems Faced by Companies and Firms
Small and medium-sized enterprises face the biggest problems regarding the payment of salaries to their employees. Medium and large companies also have difficulty in paying salaries to employees, but to a lesser extent. The main problem medium and large enterprises face is the disruption of the value chain due to the pandemic (Cantore et al., 2020). Source: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020

Stock Market Flows
Changes that may occur in the stock markets in which companies' shares are bought and sold have a significant effect on the value of pensions and individual savings accounts. During the pandemic, therefore, there were serious falls in Figure 22. Policies governments should implement, as indicated by firms (%) Source: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020 In a UNIDO survey conducted in Mongolia, Pakistan, and Thailand, companies in those countries answered how useful they found the measures taken by their governments; 72% of Mongolian companies, 77% of Pakistani companies, and 73% of Thai companies said that direct financial support from the government was very beneficial for the crisis (Cantore et al., 2020).
The OECD (2020) analyzed the impact of the three key government measures aimed at strengthening and supporting companies financially affected by COVID-19: tax deferrals, debt relief, and temporary support for wage payments. From this analysis, the scenarios concerning the financial data of companies from the Orbis data were investigated by OECD. The first scenario concerns business support, which is abundant. The second scenario concerns financial support. Support for wage payments is an effective measure, while the measure of tax deferrals seemed to have less impact on corporate cash flows. According to the same OECD study, if all three measures were combined, as mentioned above, within 2 months the number of companies affected would be reduced by 20% (OECD, 2020).
UNIDO research shows that government efficiency is paramount to the speed and effectiveness of pandemic crisis response measures. Based on some elements of business support, contrary to the expectations of companies from government measures, questions are raised concerning government choices that could adapt industrial policy measures and packages (Cantore et al., 2020).
The UNIDO shows that 10% of businesses in Afghanistan and Vietnam and 50% of businesses in Malaysia and Mongolia have benefited and been stimulated by government measures. As Figure 23 shows, larger companies are more likely to receive government support than small businesses, which are more vulnerable and have more difficulty accessing finance. In Malaysia alone, this is not the case with business size, as 70% of small businesses have received government support (Cantore et al., 2020). ISSN 1923-4023 E-ISSN 1923 Figure 23. Share of firms benefitting from government support by firm size (%) Source: https://www.unido.org/stories/coronavirus-economic-impact-10-july-2020 The effects of the pandemic on businesses and the economic downturn that followed the outbreak of COVID-19 have forced many governments to start investigating whether it favors the country's businesses so that they can grow inclusively. An example is the European Union recovery plan, which implemented a recovery and resilience mechanism in European countries, in the context of Europe's green and digital transitions. The International Monetary Fund has proposed green recovery plans as they work on structural reforms for macroeconomic growth. Few countries have followed this plan, such as the Republic of Korea, Germany and the United States, which have promoted greenery in the construction sector (IISD, 2020).
Other countries have used government funds to create more resilient health care systems (WHO, 2020a). Also, the use of state funds that were implemented aimed at reducing their dependence on the import of basic goods. The funds that governments have, therefore, mitigated the effects of the conditional pandemic and led to the healthier, more resilient and productive economy of the country (Mazzucato & Andreoni, 2020). To make this possible, of course, each country had to be able to design, implement and enforce similar conditions among recipients of financial support (Cantore et al., 2020).

Concluding Remarks
In general, not all companies were affected to the same degree or in the same way by the pandemic. Thus, the effects vary from country to country among industries and companies to different extents. The problems of industries and businesses vary by type of industry/company. Therefore, the political reactions and measures implemented by each government to support their businesses to recover should account for these differences.
Governments around the world and the international community have worked to alleviate the immediate effects of the pandemic crisis. This was done mainly by developing countries. Of course, the countries mentioned above in the analysis of the surveys conducted are no exception. The fact that the media are less likely to receive government support and thus have greater difficulty accessing finances makes it necessary to seek improved policy responses to address the additional problems these companies face due to the pandemic. The combination of policy measures to address the pandemic crisis and its implications for business and industry is an issue that needs to be further explored.
Research results on these issues should generally be monitored. The above analysis, based on recent research data, helps show the absence of a visible strategy and policies to support business in their process of reorientation and restarting. The way in which developing countries' government measures are adapted to operational needs and difficulties affects their prospect of being resilient, inclusive of businesses, and having a sustainable industrialization. Indeed, China, European countries, and the United States have already launched aggressive plans to boost their productivity and business innovation. Developing countries should take advantage of this and widen the asymmetries they already have.