Forecasting Tourism Demand in Croatia: A Comparison of Different Extrapolative Methods

Tea Baldigara

Abstract


The paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of different basic extrapolative methods in modelling international tourism demand in Croatia. The study compares the results of five basic time-series forecasting methods used to predict foreign tourists’ nights, namely the Naïve 2 trend, the double moving average with linear trend, the double exponential smoothing, the linear trend time and the autoregressive method. According to the diagnostic all used models show good forecasting performances, but the double moving average method performed the best forecasting performance due to the smallest value of the mean absolute percentage error.


Full Text:

PDF


DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/jbar.v2n1p84

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Journal of Business Administration Research

ISSN 1927-9507 (Print)      ISSN 1927-9515  (Online)

Copyright © Sciedu Press

To make sure that you can receive messages from us, please add the 'Sciedupress.com' domain to your e-mail 'safe list'. If you do not receive e-mail in your 'inbox', check your 'bulk mail' or 'junk mail' folders.