Macroeconomic Factors of Emerging Stock Market: The Evidence from Thailand

Nopphon Tangjitprom

Abstract


This paper aims to examine the importance of macroeconomic factors to determine the performance of stock market. The regression analysis is used to examine this relationship. The result shows that macroeconomic variables can explain stock return significantly after adjusting for some lags of data availability. Moreover, the lead-lag relationship is examined by Vector Autoregression model and Granger causality test. They reveal that macroeconomic variables are less important to predict future stock return whereas stock return can be used to predict macroeconomic variables more. In the other word, stock return is good candidate as a leading economic indicator. Finally, the variance decomposition technique reveals that interest rate is the most important macroeconomic variable to explain the variance in stock return. However, it is clearly noticed that all macroeconomic variables can explain only a little variance in stock return.

Full Text: PDF DOI: 10.5430/ijfr.v3n2p105

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

International Journal of Financial Research
ISSN 1923-4023(Print) ISSN 1923-4031(Online)

 

Copyright © Sciedu Press

To make sure that you can receive messages from us, please add the 'Sciedu.ca' domain to your e-mail 'safe list'. If you do not receive e-mail in your 'inbox', check your 'bulk mail' or 'junk mail' folders.